EARLY PREDICTION OF COVID-19 IN CUBA USING THE SEIR MODEL
A Talk by Prof. Dr Luis Beltrán Ramos-Sánchez (University of Camagüey, Camagüey. Cuba)
About this Talk
EARLY PREDICTION OF COVID-19 IN CUBA USING THE SEIR MODEL
Luis B. Ramos Sánchez*, Héctor Sánchez-Vargas, Pablo Galindo-Llanes, Hilda Oquendo-Ferrer, María C. Julián-Ricardo1, Julio Madera Quintana, Yailé Caballero-Mota, Santiago Lajes-Choy E-mail: [email protected]. Department of Chemical Engineering. University of Camagüey. Cuba.
ABSTRACT
Introduction. The use of predictive models of the local evolution of the epidemic is of great help for the authorities to take decisions and to evaluate the impact produced by it.
Objective. The objective of this work is to elaborate a phenomenological model that allows for making approximate long-term predictions, of the evolution COVID-19 epidemic will have in Cuba, aimed at offering key information to the decision makers for a better organization of the containment actions.
Methods. In this work, mathematical modeling, simulation and computational optimization are employed to implement the use of a SEIR-type compartment model, with seven kinetic parameters. These parameters were identified with the observed data of the epidemic and a robust nonlinear fitting procedure for complex models.
Results. The predictions of one year indicate a favorable scenario in the country, if everything remains as it is until now. The interpretation of the identified kinetic parameters reveals important information on the characteristics of the virus and the host under the conditions of our nation.