Controlling the second Covid-19 wave by Mandatory Mobile Contact Tracing (MMCT) Containment and Time Dependent Doubling Time Control

Antonio Bianconi 1,2,3, Augusto Marcelli 1,4, Gaetano Campi 1,2, Andrea Perali 1,5

1 RICMASS, Rome International Centre Materials Science Superstripes, via dei Sabelli 119A, 00185 Rome, Italy; [email protected] http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9795-3913

3 National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute), 115409 Moscow, Russia

4 INFN - Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, 00044 Frascati (RM), Italy; [email protected]

5 School of Pharmacy, Physics Unit, University of Camerino, 62032 Camerino (MC), Italy.

1. Introduction

The first wave of Covid-19 epidemic of the novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS - CoV-2) has been spreading around the world from January to July 2020 controlled by different containment measures using non-pharmaceutical interventions: 1) Lockdown Finding case and Tracing (LFT) using mandatory mobile contact tracing in the supercritical regime, followed in the arrested phase by Mandatory Mobile Contact Tracing (MMCT) applied in Asia; 2) the Lockdown Stop and Go (LSG) policy proposed by the Imperial College team in London applied in Europe; and 3) the American Lockdown Stop and Go (ALSG) with minor mandatory rules.

1. Method/Description

We have analyzed the evolution of the first wave in the three continents by our proposed method [1,2,3] based on recording the doubling time Td(t) evolution and to establish the relationship between the average number of fatalities per million population in the first Covid wave, the characteristic time of the exponential growth of Td(t) called the success s factor. We have obtained that massive test policy with the mandatory mobile contact tracing [4,5,6] is the best containment policy reducing fatalities and economy losses.

3 Results The LFT policy in Asian countries has been able to reduce by a factor 100 the number of fatalities in the first 120 days of the Covid-19 epidemic, to reduce the time width of the Covid-19 pandemic dome by a factor 2.5 and to rapidly stop new outbreaks avoiding the second wave.

The verified success of our approach, measuring the exponential increase of the doubling time Td(t) evolution, confirm that it is a reliable tool for early predictions of epidemic spreading time evolution therefore it provides in Sept 2020 in the early stage of the second Covid-19 wave started in Europe in August 2020 a quantitative measure of the success of the different non-pharmaceutical interventions during the second Covid-19 wave in different European countries.

4 Conclusions

The authors propose that European countries in the supercritical regime of the second Covid-19 wave should activate a massive number of rapid Covit test together with mandatory mobile contact tracing to cover more tam half population like has been done in Asiatic populations if the policy makers want to stop the fatalities, to open the schools and manufacture.